WEEKLY INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY By Intelligence Fusion
The Russian invasion of Ukraine
Date of Report: 20/04/22, 11:00hrs BST
Reporting Period: 13/04/22, 00:00hrs BST — 19/04/22, 23:59hrs BST
LAST 7 DAYS IN UKRAINE | SIGNIFICANT INCIDENTS:
Click here to enlarge photos … PIC1 | PIC2
Summary
“The Russian preference for indirect fire (mortars, artillery, rockets and missiles) has continued as per previous reports over the last week. The majority of these attacks have occurred across Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts.
Ukrainian forces have been able to fortify the Azovstal facility for the last stand and so far it appears to have been successful in defending against direct attacks. However, an attempt by Ukraine’s 36th Marine Brigade to break through the siege appears to have failed with a number killed or captured. This situation has now seen Russian forces employing Tupolev strategic bombers on the facility. Russian forces now appear intent on completely destroying Azovstal and anyone remaining within it.
While most activity has been concentrated in eastern Ukraine, there have been occasional — but effective — attacks elsewhere; missile attacks have been able to cause significant damage in Lviv and hinder clean-up and investigation efforts into alleged Russian war crimes (evidence continues to indicate these allegations are credible and widespread). Also of note is the recent ‘vote’ in Rozivka, Zaporizhia Oblast. Donetsk Separatists have reportedly overseen a vote for the town to join with the Donetsk People’s Republic. This is despite the town being outside the regional boundaries of Donetsk.”
BEYOND UKRAINE:
Summary
“Attempted Russian counter-claims to hide a humiliating loss for the Black Sea Fleet (the sinking of the flagship missile cruiser ‘Moskva’) have been largely unsuccessful and regardless of whether it was destroyed or sank in an accident, a significant attack and command and control node has been lost in Russia’s war effort. Additionally, this appears to be the second loss of a Russian Navy vessel by Ukrainian attacks from its shores.
Nonetheless, Russia appears intent on continuing its invasion. Statements by President Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov support reports from within Eastern Ukraine that a new offensive is underway and for the time being, no potential exists for any kind of agreement to be made to end the war. Additionally, Russia has been making several claims of Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory; but these appear to lack credibility. Considering the sinking of the Moskva and developments in Russia, the new offensive in Eastern Ukraine will be necessary for Russia to regain the initiative. This will require attacks that are intense, inflict heavy losses and are rapidly successful.
Across Europe, much of the same activity continues but with indications of increased divides between Ukrainian and Russian sympathies. A separate, upcoming report provides further insight into these developments — keep an eye out on our LinkedIn page this week for the release.
Assessment
A new Russian offensive has begun and for the time being, Mariupol, Lysychansk and Severodonetsk appear to be the priorities (in that order). It’s probable they will prioritise destroying forces barricaded in the Azovstal facility as soon as possible to consolidate all Russian-held territory. The Azovstal facility will probably be subject to intense and sustained bombing as the main effort for this objective. Other locations will likely be attacked to hold Ukrainian forces in their current positions until Mariupol is under complete Russian control.
Once complete, Russian forces and their separatist proxies will likely proceed to capture all of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts which can then enable a return to Kharkiv and Kherson Oblasts as well as advances into Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava Oblasts. Capturing of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts will probably be claimed as liberation while further advances will likely see votes similar to Razivka occur to provide a veil of legitimacy.
The fighting which will occur is going to be intense and will probably see more incidents of civilian casualties from previous reports. Such intensity will likely require more international support for Ukraine and as this continues, divisions which are becoming more noticeable are likely to widen which will increase the chances of unrest breaking out.”
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